[personal profile] lacroix
So it turns out my earlier predictions were correct — instead of running the table, the left actually incurred the net loss of a region. The higher turnout ensured the rightist slant dominated in Alsace, and the Presidential Majority won by ±40,000 votes. The incumbent party in Guyane dragged down Taubira's list and left her ±39,200 votes in the hole, and in La Réunion, the PS and the bizarre PCR-led unity coalition split the leftist bounce and left blue in the lead by ±21,000 votes. Three regional presidencies for the right, as opposed to 2004's two.

Late last night, over on Daily Kos, Jerome a Paris was trying to spin this into a victory for the left, which seems harder to do now. I suppose you could be arguing that nobody cares about overseas departments and that the métropole is what matters. You could argue that there's no significant backswing, and that the lack of one is evidence enough.

Even if you go the obvious route and point out that Guyane and La Réunion were lost because of idiosyncratic anti-incumbent sentiment, and that little microcosms like that shouldn't be held as indicative — well, Corsica is the left's only gain, and its politics are hardly less peculiar. I guess it doesn't count either, then?

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Julianna Lacroix

July 2010

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